Can Twitter Predict Election Results?
Is Twitter activity a more accurate predictor of politics than the polls? We can find the answer out as early as tonight in the Iowa Caucus.
Twitter is now being used to track candidate buzz in the 2012 elections and is ready for action in today’s caucuses. Here’s what the Washington Post has to say about whether or not Twitter can predict election results:
The Washington Post launched Tuesday a real-time web app called @MentionMachine that tracks the volume of Twitter and media mentions each candidate receives over time, compares their mentions to other candidates’, and captures sentiment by displaying the most popular stories and tweets related to individual candidates over the past week. Readers can access the app through a toolbar displayed alongside all Post stories and and blog posts that mention the 2012 candidates. Reporters will also be using the data in their own reporting, and provide much-needed context for various spikes and dips in mention volume.
Cory Haik, executive producer for news innovation and strategic projects at The Washington Post, says the app has the potential to be “an early indicator well ahead of polls or other traditional campaign measures.”
The app was built in-house and leverages data from more than 10,000 news sources and Twitter’s API. Haik says she plans to continue to improve the product to measure not just volume of mentions, but the sentiment of those mentions as well. http://mashable.com/2012/01/03/washington-post-twitter-elections/
Can Twitter Predict Election Results | Who has the most votes?
As unpopular as he is with traditional, corporate media is how popular he is in social media. Ron Paul is leading the way with the most Twitter mentions leading up to the Iowa Caucus. Here’s how he matches up with the other political candidates:
- Ron Paul – 228k Twitter Mentions
- Newt Gingrich- 46k Twitter Mentions
- Mitt Romney – 45k Twitter Mentions
- Rick Perry – 41k Twitter Mentions
Can Twitter Predict Election Results | Who will win tonight?
According to the latest NBC News-Marist national poll, ex-Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has a slight edge over Texas Rep. Ron Paul. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich’s recent surge has subsided, but he remains in third. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum’s campaign is getting hot right before the caucus. The combination of an heightened sense of conflict with Iran and Rick Santorum’s bloodthirsty desire to invade Iran seems to be affecting the momentum of his campaign. But as the theory would go, since Ron Paul has the highest positive sentiment on Twitter, it looks as though Ron Paul will win tonight’s Iowa Caucus.
What do you think? Do you think positive sentiment on Twitter will accurately reflect what will happen in the elections or do you think the polls are more accurate?